Back

'the #Syrian Government has given the fighters an ultimatum to incorporate themselves into  the Russian army in #Syria or to disarm and leave by Oct.

Finding a successor amenable to the #Kremlin and also acceptable to the government In #Mali and #CAR might prove to be very tricky

#Wagner and #Prigozhin have not been mentioned on #Russian state tv since the start of September' more on #TheGlobalJigsaw:
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'One argument against the hit job theory came from the #Kremlin -friendly president of neighbouring Belarus, Alexander #Lukashenko

"I know Putin, he is a calculating, calm and even a sluggish man, so i cannot imagine that he did that. It was a very rough, unprofessional job. very much unlike #Putin. But whatever happened, he will be blamed for that"

What is the #WagnerGroup up to in #Belarus ? Answers in #TheGlobalJigsaw special on #Wagner after #Prigozhin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

We waited for a while for the dust to settle after #Prigozhin ’s plane crash in late August, before we recorded this episode of #TheGlobalJigsaw - for the clues to appear. Because when it comes to #Wagner ’s future, very little is out in the open. Tune in to hear the possible options for #Russia 's foreign policy muscle:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
Expertise by @beverly_ochieng, Jen Monaghan, Gleb Borshchevsky, Margaryta Maliukova, Hesham Shawish. Presented by @krassitwigg

Hear #BBC Monitoring’s #Russia , Middle East #MENA , #Africa , #Ukraine and military experts weigh in on the options on #TheGlobalJigsaw #Wagner special:
'the likelihood of not just Wagner, but any other private military company gaining as much power and influence within the #Russian system as Wagner and as #Prigozhin had, those days are gone. #Putin 's learnt his lesson and I don't think any company or individual will be able to gain that much power again'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'The next commander of #Wagner would have to not only be able to control the actual manpower, they would also need to take over #Prigozhin ’s dealings with the Defence Ministry and the #Kremlin there are speculations that only someone from the Defence Ministry would be able to take control of Wagner. However, the #Wagnerites are not happy with that idea'
What next for the #WagnerGroup , #Russia 's blunt instrument abroad? More on #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'there is one person who used to be sort of a liaison between #Russia 's Def Min and #Wagner .  Andrey #Troshev , callsign Sedoy, was one of Wagner’s spokespeople… After the #mutiny he fled to another private military company called #Redut - it is essentially a military unit operated out of military bases and run by the Def Min.' 

A wagner 2.0 under #Shoigu ? What is the likelihood? Insights on #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

Sedoy means grey haired in #Russian . #Troshev -a ret colonel- participated in the #Afghan , #Syrian and #Chechen conflicts. Yesterday #Putin met him - likely the closest to a confirmation of his significant role in the #Wagner story.

'absorption into #Redut is now one of the many options for Wagner’s future and we know that Troshev, alongside several other defectors, has been trying to lure over Wagner fighters into that military company.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'the vast majority of #mercenaries are very opposed to the idea of #Wagner being run by #Russia 's defence ministry. They specifically joined Wagner to not fight under the ministry's ranks. #Wagnerites seem to support a man known as Lotus, his real name Anton Yelizarov. Lotus is a wagner commander who was responsible for training of fighters in Molkino, in Krasnodar territory'
More info on the #WagnerGroup 's future (if any) on #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

Despite his personal connection to #Putin , #Prigozhin wasn’t seen by the #Wagnerites as a #Kremlin -linked #oligarch but rather as an outsider, as one of them. As a former convict himself, he spoke their language.

'Prigozhin was very popular with his fighters, because many  were also very critical of the Kremlin, its policies and the #war , especially how it is being commanded by the Defence Ministry.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'Many people would have been jailed twice over for saying a fraction of what #Prigozhin said, however he managed to remain free, and for a very long period of time alive, while still remaining a very vocal critic  And that drew a lot of people to him because many of them shared his views, wanted what they perceived as the truth to be spoken, but they could not speak it themselves. So there was prigozhin, this very loud person who would speak it for them.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'Option three is that #Russia 's defence ministry tries to supplant rather than absorb #Wagner 's activities in particular the Middle East and #Africa , which I would say were the main theatres of Wagner's operations.'

'Regarding their presence in Africa… there does not appear to be some sort of a race to take control of Wagner, the actual company. But it does seem to be some sort of an effort to take over wagner’s contracts and ties, even its militarty assets.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'Since prigozhin’s death many #Russian def ministry officials including Deputy Defence Minister #Yevkurov, army general #Surovikin - who has for a long time had ties to #Wagner -, military intelligence generals like Vladimir #Alekseyev and Andrey #Averyanov - they were all  spotted in various #African states and it is likely to be some sort of a  coordinated effort to renegotiate Wagner’s contracts and take them over for the ministry's pocket private military companies' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'#Redut is a defence ministry operated #PMC . It is said to operate out of regular military bases, and its servicemen sign contracts directly with the ministry. The so called #Russian Expeditionary Corps is now being set up as part of Redut. (Rumoured to be set up to take over #Wagner ’s #Africa ops) Recently, according to grey zone they grew from 2500 fighters to a staggering manpower of about 20,000 men, with plans to recruit 20 thousand more.'
Intrigued? Tune in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'Just before #Prigozhin ’s plane went down in fact, the very day before we heard reports that #Russia 's Deputy Defence Minister, Yunus-Bek #Yevkurov was in #Libya - he met with Commander #Haftar Who is one of the key figures in Libya.'

More on the race to take over #Wagner in the #MENA region and their operations in #Africa in the latest special of #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

' #Haftar is a #Soviet trained military officer and an early ally of the former leader Muammar #Gaddafi. #Libya is seen as the main logistics centre for #Wagner ’s operations in #Africa . Their presence there has also been seen as a key tool for #Russia to counter, to spoil, to frustrate Western aims & policies, especially on the #energy & #migration front. Wagner’s presence in Libya has also given Russia considerable political and military clout' - #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'the presence of #Wagner operatives has been reported in #Libya -n media in several key #oil facilities under #LNA control (the army led by Khalifa #Haftar in the east of the country), and those installations include the Zilla #oilfield and the oil crescent ports'
'A day before #prigozhin ’s plane crash the #Russian Dep Defence Minister Yunus-Bek #Yevkurov visited eastern #Libya to reassure officials that Wagner fighters would remain there under #Moscow 's control'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

' #Russia maintains significant military presence in #Syria and its air power and political support over the past decade have been essential in aiding President Bashar Al #Assad and his govt and shifting the tide of the conflict. Over the years, #Wagner has been involved in combat missions and security for #oil installations in Syria.'
'there have been reports that #Syrian officials have already told Wagner to integrate with the Russian army or leave by October'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

A #Syrian website 'reported murky investments in the Syrian #oil and #gas sector, including stakes in Mercury and Velada. These are companies that were granted contracts for oil exploration in #Syria , approved by the Syrian parliament.  And according to #Russian media outlets, these companies were owned by #Prigozhin'
A few days ago Russian media reported that Velada has changed hands. According to Vyorstka, it is now owned by a 27 yo ex-policeman in St Petersburg'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

Another intriguing figure in #Moscow’s delegation to the Middle East is 'General Andrey #Averyanov - he is one of #Russia's top spies and he has been linked in reporting to many of the #assassination attempts, subterfuge, abroad that has been carried out by Russian military intelligence. In 2018 there was an assassination attempt on sergey #skripal , former russian spy, on British soil. And this general was linked to the elite #GRU group that carried out the operations
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

When we talk about #Wagner in #Africa - the bridgehead for #Moscow was the Central #African Republic.  

'in the #CAR there are about four leaders who were looking after #Russia 's interest - the defence contracts plus #intelligence and #security for president #Touadera The head of the Russia House who was this cultural node, but also overseen economic interests. There were the media operations too
(Cont.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'for the #Kremlin to take this over means they have to consolidate their leadership and make sure that the #mercenaries are able to pledge allegiance to them.
in #Mali's case for instance they haven't acknowledged that they are working with the #wagnergroup as far as they're concerned, it's the #Russian government, so they might be more open towards moving in #Russia 's direction in determining the leadership of the group on a local level.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'in the #CAR there would be a bigger stake and it felt as if the presidency was quite comfortable with the #mercenaries who are already present because they have already built up relationship with them. In some ways symbiotic, but also parasitic. These are people who have already known the terrain, what it is that these leaders want. its lucrative on both sides.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#Wagner #prighozin #TheGlobalJigsaw

'But ultimately it is also about a bigger partnership with #Russia because in as much as the #Wagner group is operating at the behest of the #Russian government, it's different from having an actual government to government deal.'
'the groups that are sort of affiliated with the #Prigozhin #propaganda machinery - Yerewolo, the collective of the defence of the military in #Mali , there is also Galaxea National in the #CAR (cont.)
#TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'their messages are also spreading out to the wider region, particularly Francophone #African countries. But any people who feel a sentiment of Panafricanism is what brings them together. But this is a radical form of PanAfricanism - they had been trumpeting support for the #Wagner group, for the #Kremlin 's geopolitical interests in the region and even drumming up support for #Russia throughout the #Ukraine conflict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

' #Wagner is no longer fighting in #Ukraine as a separate unit according to the Ukraine's military intelligence… And Wagner was actually one of the most efficient army units in #Russia. Wagner was better equipped than some of the regular Russian army units - it had his own tanks, air defence, aircraft…You can actually tell a lot about Wagner from what happened in #Bakhmut Wagner was ready to sacrifice as many lives as possible for its military goal…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

'They would send small infantry groups to try to attack #Ukrainian positions. And if these groups were killed, they would send another group and then another. So eventually, they succeeded in capturing #Bakhmut , but this came at a very big price. According to some reports, #Wagner lost half of its personnel - they started with 50,000 and ended up with half of that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3t5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

As #Wagner built a reputation for cruelty abroad, its popularity skyrocketed back home, in #Russia 

'At that time, wagner’s presence exploded online. Many fan groups appeared on social media, online marketplaces started selling knock off memmorabilia, like patches, flags, T shirts, etc. wagner recruitment ads for the first time appeared on #Russian streets. So outside of TV and maybe state newspapers, wagners presence grew exponentially'
#TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

' #Poland , #Latvia and #Lithuania all share a border with #Belarus and they all took measures to increase border security. After reports emerged that #Wagner was being redeployed to Belarus, Lithuania closed two border checkpoints. Latvia and Poland sent additional forces to protect the border - Poland sent around 10,000 additional troops'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'Then at the end of July, the #Polish PM announced that #Wagner was sending forces to the so called Suwalki gap, which is the Polish border with #Lithuania... #Poland remains a target for all kinds of #Russian intelligent activities. For example in August, there were around several hundred #Wagner recruitment posters that appeared in #Warsaw and #Krakow.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'So as long as Western weapons keep making their way to #Ukraine through #Poland, there will still be these kinds of attempts at destabilisation in Poland, be that through #Wagner or through disinformation or any other kinds of activities.'
'Wagner was one of hundreds of entities that #prigozhin had his hands on, ranging from private military companies to #propaganda to catering, which is where he made a lot of his money, to construction.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'you can look at the assets that really mean something to #Russia , there's two main areas. Its #propaganda and media operations and the guns for hire… There will be a real fight within the #Russian state to gain control of these assets… following the mutiny. We saw that his media holding patriot and the 11 websites  under that brand name ceased operating so essentially access was blocked. By the Russian media regulator'
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'Initially, we struggled to see sort of of any change in the narratives, there but slowly. We started to see that  these narratives were being pushed by these traditionally pro #prigozhin trolls - narratives that were critical of him for the #Wagner #mutiny so that would suggest that this troll factory has been taken over already by structures close to the #Russian state itself'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

The devastation caused by the #WagnerGroup outside #Russia over the years has been well documented. Less so - a recent phenomenon affecting #Russian society itself - a wave of violence by #mercenaries returning from the battlefield. In June, #Prigozhin put the number of fighters recruited from prisons and subsequently freed at 32 thousand.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'That's 32,000 ex #convicts who are given arms and promised presidential pardons if they served a term with #wagner . They were promised freedom at the end of their contracts, as long as they refrain from committing crimes. while Part of the company. However, when those ex convicts received their pardons, and returned to civilian life, all hell broke loose really.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'The Vyorstka website has documented at least 12 murders carried out by ex #Wagner #convicts who have returned to #Russia'

'Some wagner fighters  were murderers, rapists and we have seen reports of exactly those crimes being committed now. Also robbery, racketeering and other forms of assault in many #Russian regions. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

'On #Russian state media you would simply see a report that there was a murder. Any mention of #Wagner would be omitted. Because it seems that these days any mentioned of wagner on state media it is a taboo'

'It's unlikely they are going to be turning their finger on themselves look at all these returning #convicts who. #Putin himself has personally pardoned'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
#TheGlobalJigsaw

just two years after the then sanctioned #Prigozhin was able to bring a #defamation case against an investigative journalist of @Bellingcat in #London:

'the very phrase to describe this designation - shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. it's purely symbolic and in fact, sets an interesting precedent because I think it's the first time a country has recognised a for profit company as a terrorist org. #Wagner isn't an ideological outfit. It's a money making operation'

And we left the 'what next' and a surprise element for the end - if you fancy you could find out by listening here to #TheGlobalJigsaw
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb

And if you are wondering why the constant #podcast recommendations in the above thread today (besides that it is a fascinating topic etc) it is because today is #InternationalPodcastDay and i know few more international #podcasts than #TheGlobalJigsaw